PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN LITHUANIA. PRESENTATION OF EXIT POLL SURVEY RESULTS

On Parliament elections day, October 14th, market research company RAIT (in a request of BNS – Baltic News Service) conducted exit poll survey of electorate. The object of this survey was to find out the preliminary results of voting in multi-constituencies.
Fieldwork was organized at 71 constituencies, at 221 elections’ districts. The survey took place from 8 a.m. to 6 p. m. In total 4,623 voters were interviewed.
At 8 p. m. survey results were presented to the Client.
Statistical error of this survey is +/-1,2%.
On Parliament elections day in Lithuania, electorate was asked, for which party they have voted.
Comparing exit poll results of market research company RAIT and conducted results of VRK (VRK - The Central Electoral Commission in Lithuania), it is correct to make a conclusion that general voting trends reflected in the survey. Exit poll results showed the leader – “Darbo partija” (Labour party), according to VRK data for this party voted exactly the same percent of electorate. (19,8%). Exit poll results also correctly showed the number and sequence of parties which are going to form the Parliament, reflected the part of votes the parties got. (Look at. Image 1. Distribution of votes. Comparison of RAIT exit poll results and VRK data).
Discrepancies within the errors could be a result of a large number of refuses to participate in the survey, especially in areas where more respondents voted for the parties, which exit polls results differs the most from VRK data.

Image 1. Distribution of votes. Comparison of RAIT exit poll results and VRK data